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Latihan TOEFL Reading 20: Game Theory and the Prisoner's Dilemma

Baca passage berikut dengan teliti, lalu kerjakan 15 soalnya. Jawaban dan pembahasan bisa dibuka setelah kamu mencoba sendiri.

Game theory, a mathematical framework for analyzing strategic interactions between rational decision-makers, gained widespread attention partly through a deceptively simple scenario known as the prisoner's dilemma. In this scenario, two suspects held separately must each decide whether to cooperate with the other by staying silent or betray the other by confessing, without knowing what choice their partner will make.

If both remain silent, both receive a relatively light sentence; if both confess, both receive a moderate sentence; but if one confesses while the other stays silent, the confessor goes free while the silent partner receives the harshest sentence possible. Analyzed individually, confessing appears to be the rational choice regardless of what the other suspect does, yet if both suspects reason this way, they arrive at a worse outcome than if they had both cooperated.

This apparent paradox, where individually rational choices produce a collectively suboptimal outcome, has proven useful for analyzing situations far beyond criminal justice, including arms races, business competition, and environmental cooperation. Researchers have since studied repeated versions of the dilemma, finding that when the same participants interact multiple times, cooperative strategies can emerge and persist, since the possibility of future retaliation changes the incentive structure of each individual decision.

Soal

1. What is the passage primarily about?

  1. Explaining the prisoner's dilemma and its broader applications in analyzing strategic decisions
  2. Describing actual criminal justice procedures in detail
  3. Arguing that cooperation is always irrational
  4. Comparing different court systems around the world
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: A. Explaining the prisoner's dilemma and its broader applications in analyzing strategic decisions

Passage menjelaskan skenario prisoner's dilemma dan penerapannya di luar konteks kriminal.

2. The word 'deceptively' in paragraph 1 is closest in meaning to

  1. In a way that seems different from the underlying reality
  2. In an extremely complicated way
  3. In a violent way
  4. In a completely honest and transparent way
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: A. In a way that seems different from the underlying reality

'Deceptively simple' berarti tampak sederhana padahal sebenarnya rumit/dalam maknanya.

3. According to paragraph 1, what must each suspect decide in the prisoner's dilemma?

  1. Whether to hire a lawyer
  2. Whether to plead guilty in open court
  3. Whether to cooperate by staying silent or betray the other by confessing
  4. Whether to appeal their sentence
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: C. Whether to cooperate by staying silent or betray the other by confessing

Disebutkan eksplisit pilihan ini di paragraf 1.

4. According to paragraph 2, what happens if one suspect confesses while the other stays silent?

  1. The confessor goes free while the silent partner receives the harshest sentence
  2. Both receive identical sentences
  3. Both go free immediately
  4. Both receive the harshest possible sentence
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: A. The confessor goes free while the silent partner receives the harshest sentence

Disebutkan eksplisit hasil ini di paragraf 2.

5. It can be inferred from paragraph 2 that mutual cooperation, though individually risky, would produce

  1. A better collective outcome than mutual betrayal
  2. An identical outcome to mutual betrayal
  3. A worse outcome than mutual betrayal
  4. No outcome at all, since it is impossible
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: A. A better collective outcome than mutual betrayal

Disebutkan jika keduanya diam, hukumannya relatif ringan — lebih baik daripada jika keduanya mengaku.

6. Why does the author explain the specific sentencing outcomes in paragraph 2?

  1. To compare different legal systems' punishments
  2. To criticize the use of mathematical models in law
  3. To argue that criminal sentencing is unfair
  4. To illustrate precisely why individually rational choices can lead to a worse collective outcome
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: D. To illustrate precisely why individually rational choices can lead to a worse collective outcome

Rincian hukuman ini menunjukkan secara konkret paradoks antara pilihan rasional individu dan hasil kolektifnya.

7. The word 'suboptimal' in paragraph 3 is closest in meaning to

  1. The best possible outcome
  2. Completely random
  3. Less than the best possible
  4. Illegal
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: C. Less than the best possible

'Collectively suboptimal outcome' berarti hasil yang tidak sebaik yang seharusnya bisa dicapai bersama.

8. According to paragraph 3, what other situations has the prisoner's dilemma been used to analyze?

  1. Only sports competitions
  2. Arms races, business competition, and environmental cooperation
  3. Only chess strategy
  4. Only romantic relationships
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: B. Arms races, business competition, and environmental cooperation

Disebutkan eksplisit ketiga contoh penerapan ini di luar konteks kriminal.

9. It can be inferred from paragraph 3 that repeated interactions between participants

  1. Can change incentives in ways that make cooperation more likely to emerge
  2. Eliminate the possibility of cooperation entirely
  3. Always produce identical results to single interactions
  4. Have no effect on strategic decision-making
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: A. Can change incentives in ways that make cooperation more likely to emerge

Disebutkan interaksi berulang membuat 'cooperative strategies can emerge and persist' karena kemungkinan pembalasan di masa depan.

10. What is the function of paragraph 3 in relation to paragraph 2?

  1. It contradicts the scenario described in paragraph 2
  2. It shifts to an entirely unrelated mathematical topic
  3. It simply repeats paragraph 2's content
  4. It broadens the scope of the dilemma's relevance and introduces findings about repeated interactions
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: D. It broadens the scope of the dilemma's relevance and introduces findings about repeated interactions

Paragraf 3 memperluas relevansi dilema ini dan menambahkan temuan tentang interaksi berulang.

11. The word 'retaliation' in paragraph 3 is closest in meaning to

  1. A legal document
  2. A type of criminal confession
  3. A response intended to punish a previous action
  4. A reward for good behavior
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: C. A response intended to punish a previous action

'Future retaliation' berarti kemungkinan tindakan balasan di masa depan sebagai respons perilaku sebelumnya.

12. According to paragraph 1, is game theory limited to criminal scenarios?

  1. Yes, it only applies to criminal justice
  2. The passage does not specify
  3. It only applies to sports
  4. No, it is a broader mathematical framework for strategic interactions
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: D. No, it is a broader mathematical framework for strategic interactions

Disebutkan eksplisit game theory adalah 'a mathematical framework for analyzing strategic interactions between rational decision-makers' secara umum.

13. According to paragraph 2, what sentence do both suspects receive if both confess?

  1. A relatively light sentence
  2. They both go free
  3. A moderate sentence
  4. The harshest possible sentence
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: C. A moderate sentence

Disebutkan eksplisit 'if both confess, both receive a moderate sentence'.

14. It can be inferred that the 'paradox' mentioned in paragraph 3 refers to

  1. An error in the original prisoner's dilemma scenario
  2. A contradiction in mathematical notation
  3. The gap between individually rational choices and the resulting suboptimal collective outcome
  4. A disagreement among researchers about definitions
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: C. The gap between individually rational choices and the resulting suboptimal collective outcome

Paradoks ini merujuk pada kesenjangan antara pilihan rasional individu dengan hasil kolektif yang kurang optimal.

15. What is paragraph 1 mainly about?

  1. Describing actual historical criminal cases
  2. Explaining repeated game strategies in detail
  3. Detailing environmental cooperation agreements
  4. Introducing game theory and the basic setup of the prisoner's dilemma scenario
Lihat jawaban dan pembahasan

Jawaban: D. Introducing game theory and the basic setup of the prisoner's dilemma scenario

Paragraf 1 memperkenalkan game theory dan skenario dasar prisoner's dilemma.

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